Using data from websiteoptimization.com I plotted the development of web page sizes over the years. I also included the exponential fit:

As you can see, the 1/2 MB mark was cracked in 2009 and the 1 MB mark was cracked in 2012. Despite the seemingly random fluctuations, an exponential trend is clearly visible. The power 0.3 indicates that the web page sizes doubles about every 2.3 years. Assuming this exponential trend continues we will have these average sizes in the coming years:

2013 – ca. 1600 kb

2014 – ca. 2100 kb

2015 – ca. 2900 kb

So the 2 MB will probably be cracked in 2014 and in 2015 we will already be close to the 3 MB mark. Of course the trend is bound to flat out, but at this point there’s no telling when it will happen.

If you like more Internet analysis, check out The Internet since 1998 in Numbers.

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Good research.. I don’t think it will keep an expomential fit for so long, a logistic fit will soon come. This should happen based on statistical theory (exponential decays into logistic) and reality: use of tablets and sophisticated phones put pressure on websites to ensure pages are less clustered. The slow removal of Flash will also contribute.