traffic

Mathematics of Blog Traffic: Model and Tips for High Traffic

Over the last few days I finally did what I long had planned and worked out a mathematical model for blog traffic. Here are the results. First we’ll take a look at the most general form and then use it to derive a practical, easily applicable formula.

We need some quantities as inputs. The time (in days), starting from the first blog entry, is denoted by t. We number the blog posts with the variable k. So k = 1 refers to the first post published, k = 2 to the second, etc … We’ll refer to the day on which entry k is published by t(k).

The initial number of visits entry k draws from the feed is symbolized by i(k), the average number of views per day entry k draws from search engines by s(k). Assuming that the number of feed views declines exponentially for each article with a factor b (my observations put the value for this at around 0.4 – 0.6), this is the number of views V the blog receives on day t:

V(t) = Σ[k] ( s(k) + i(k) · bt – t(k))

Σ[k] means that we sum over all k. This is the most general form. For it to be of any practical use, we need to make simplifying assumptions. We assume that the entries are published at a constant frequency f (entries per day) and that each article has the same popularity, that is:

i(k) = i = const.
s(k) = s = const.

After a long calculation you can arrive at this formula. It provides the expected number of daily views given that the above assumptions hold true and that the blog consists of n entries in total:

V = s · n + i / ( 1 – b1/f )

Note that according to this formula, blog traffic increases linearly with the number of entries published. Let’s apply the formula. Assume we publish articles at a frequency f = 1 per day and they draw i = 5 views on the first day from the feed and s = 0.1 views per day from search engines. With b = 0.5, this leads to:

V = 0.1 · n + 10

So once we gathered n = 20 entries with this setup, we can expect V = 12 views per day, at n = 40 entries this grows to V = 14 views per day, etc … The theoretical growth of this blog with number of entries is shown below:

viewsentries

How does the frequency at which entries are being published affect the number of views? You can see this dependency in the graph below (I set n = 40):

viewsfrequency

The formula is very clear about what to do for higher traffic: get more attention in the feed (good titles, good tagging and a large number of followers all lead to high i and possibly reduced b), optimize the entries for search engines (high s), publish at high frequency (obviously high f) and do this for a long time (high n).

We’ll draw two more conclusions. As you can see the formula neatly separates the search engine traffic (left term) and feed traffic (right term). And while the feed traffic reaches a constant level after a while of constant publishing, it is the search engine traffic that keeps on growing. At a critical number of entries N, the search engine traffic will overtake the feed traffic:

N = i / ( s · ( 1 – b1/f ) )

In the above blog setup, this happens at N = 100 entries. At this point both the search engines as well as the feed will provide 10 views per day.

Here’s one more conclusion: the daily increase in the average number of views is just the product of the daily search engine views per entry s and the publishing frequency f:

V / t = s · f

Thus, our example blog will experience an increase of 0.1 · 1 = 0.1 views per day or 1 additional view per 10 days. If we publish entries at twice the frequency, the blog would grow with 0.1 · 2 = 0.2 views per day or 1 additional view every 5 days.

Increase Views per Visit by Linking Within your Blog

One of the most basic and useful performance indicator for blogs is the average number of views per visit. If it is high, that means visitors stick around to explore the blog after reading a post. They value the blog for being well-written and informative. But in the fast paced, content saturated online world, achieving a lot of views per visit is not easy.

You can help out a little by making exploring your blog easier for readers. A good way to do this is to link within your blog, that is, to provide internal links. Keep in mind though that random links won’t help much. If you link one of your blog post to another, they should be connected in a meaningful way, for example by covering the same topic or giving relevant additional information to what a visitor just read.

Being mathematically curious, I wanted to find a way to judge what impact such internal links have on the overall views per visit. Assume you start with no internal links and observe a current number views per visitor of x. Now you add n internal links in your blog, which has in total a number of m entries. Given that the probability for a visitor to make use of an internal link is p, what will the overall number of views per visit change to? Yesterday night I derived a formula for that:

x’ = x + (n / m) · (1 / (1-p) – 1)

For example, my blog (which has as of now very few internal links) has an average of x = 2.3 views per visit and m = 42 entries. If I were to add n = 30 internal links and assuming a reader makes use of an internal link with the probability p = 20 % = 0.2, this should theoretically change into:

x’ = 2.3 + (30 / 42) · (1 / 0.8 – 1) = 2.5 views per visit

A solid 9 % increase in views per visit and this just by providing visitors a simple way to explore. So make sure to go over your blog and connect articles that are relevant to each other. The higher the relevancy of the links, the higher the probability that readers will end up using them. For example, if I only added n = 10 internal links instead of thirty, but had them at such a level of relevancy that the probability of them being used increases to p = 40 % = 0.4, I would end up with the same overall views per visit:

x’ = 2.3 + (10 / 42) · (1 / 0.6 – 1) = 2.5 views per visit

So it’s about relevancy as much as it is about amount. And in the spirit of not spamming, I’d prefer adding a few high-relevancy internal links that a lot low-relevancy ones.

If you’d like to know more on how to optimize your blog, check out: Setting the Order for your WordPress Blog Posts and Keywords: How To Use Them Properly On a Website or Blog.

Setting the order for your wordpress blog posts

Usually your blog entries are ordered according to the date on which they were published. You can however also order them according to your wishes by altering the time tag. It’s a good idea to bump posts which have proven to be popular among readers to the top of the page from time to time. Note that the posts will not appear as newly published in the feed, but they will be the first thing a reader sees when he or she clicks on your blog’s title.

Here’s how to bump a post to the top of the page:

1. Go to the most current blog entry and click on edit. Under the section “Publish” (at the top, on the right) you will find the time tag. Note this time.

2. Go to the post to be bumped and click on edit. Again look for the time tag under the section publish and edit it. For it to appear at the top, the time tag must show a later time than the current number one.

I sometimes put this post (Mach Cone) at the top of the page because readers seem to enjoy the picture in it (and because I love it as well, it is physics and math come to life and in action).

While we’re at it, check out my sidebar for the “Posts I like” widget. Add it to your blog as well if you like to help out bloggers who have created great content.

Keywords: How To Use Them Properly On a Website or Blog

Because keywords help determine the ranking of your website, and therefore how visible your pages are to Internet traffic, it is important to use keywords properly in the creation of your blog or website.

In today’s world of Internet lingo, you may frequently hear the terms “keywords,” “search engine rankings,” and “keyword search results” bandied about. However, not everyone knows what keywords are, and how important they are to the success of a website.

Keywords are essentially words or phrases that summarize the topic of a site. When a Web surfer types a word or phrase into the blank field of a search engine such as MSN or Google, the search engine returns a list of related sites. Each site on this list is determined by the presence of the search terms, or keywords, in the site’s meta tags, image tags, and content.

Keywords and Meta Tags

Meta tags are like a site’s “dog tags.” They identify the site’s title, description, and keywords. Meta tags are invisible to Web surfers, but they are instrumental in a search engine’s recognition of the site’s content.

Title Tags

A title tag gives the title of the Web page. A title should only be around six words long, and the primary keyword – the word or phrase that the site is primarily identified with – should be in this title tag. The closer to the beginning of the title the primary keyword is, the stronger the association with that keyword will be.

Description Tags

A Web page’s description tag provides the search engines with a summary of the content contained on the page. Once again, the primary keywords for this page should be contained in the description, as close to the beginning as possible. Description tags only allow 200 characters of text.

Keyword Tags

The keyword tag lists all of the keywords that can be associated with the Web page. The primary keyword used in the title and description tags should be first, followed by other keywords in order of importance and relevance. Although keywords can be separated by commas, they don’t have to be; however, keywords should not be repeated more than three times, lest the Web page be rejected by the search engines as spam. Between 800 and 1,000 characters are allowed for keyword text.

Keywords and Image Tags

Image tags are the text that shows up in place of an image, if the image fails to load for any reason. However, image tags serve a more important function: they allow the search engines to “read” your images. Without image tags, search engines have no way of interpreting your images. Therefore, image tags can also help boost the visibility and relevancy of your site to search engines.

Keywords and Web Page Content

The tags that you use on a Web page are important identifiers for search engines. However, in order to maintain a respectable search engine ranking, your Web page must establish relevancy. In other words, the keywords in your tags must pertain to the actual content on the page. Therefore, the same keywords you list in your tags must be used within the text your page displays.

The most important part of the content is the opening paragraph. The primary keyword – the keyword that was used in the title and description, and listed first in the keyword text – should be used several times in the first paragraph, and then occasionally throughout the rest of the page. Other, less important keywords can be used occasionally throughout the content, as well. This will indicate to the search engines that your page really is relevant to the keywords listed in your tags.

Another way to judge keywords is via a concept called “keyword density.” Keyword density shows the frequency at which a keyword is used. The density is calculated by taking the total number of words and dividing it into the number of times keywords appear in the text. The resulting number is multiplied by 100 to create a percentage. Keyword density can be a tricky business, however. Too low a density will fail to be noticed by the search engines, whereas too high a density can cause a Web page to be rejected as spam. Typically, a keyword density of around 5% is sufficient.

The Importance of Keywords

Keywords are a vital part of the creation of Web pages because they directly affect how visible the page will be to search engine traffic. The presence of keywords needs to be a consideration in every aspect of designing a Web page: designing the tags as well as writing the content. Because of the impact keywords can have on the success of your site, it’s important to know how to use them properly.

Find out more on how to optimize your blog here: Increase Views per Visit by Linking Within your Blog.

Article Marketing Myths And Facts

By now everyone has heard of article marketing and so many people out define it in so many different ways there that it has become hard for people new to article marketing to understand.

In general, article marketing is where you write an article on a topic that is related to your website topic. Not a promotional article for your website, but an article about something that is informative to the reader. In the article you use keywords and phrases that relate to your topic as well, much like you would optimize a webpage. Your article when reprinted will be the text of a webpage or webpages.

In the author bio section at the bottom is some info about you and links to your website. It is suggested that you put in one link to your main page and one to an interior page that fits the article you are writing.

If your article is submitted to websites that take article submissions and offers free content to webmasters, then webmasters choose to repost your article on their websites, the links in the author bio section become links from their websites to your website.

Now lets go on to the myths and facts about article marketing.

MYTH: Article marketing doesn’t really help you all that much.

FACT: Article Marketing can help you increase your link popularity and be a source of some of the most targeted traffic you can get.

MYTH: Reprinted Articles only get indexed as supplemental pages, therefore it doesn’t help enough to make it worthwhile.

FACT: Depending on where the article gets submitted to, the article itself can get a top 10 listing in major search engines and not as a supplemental page.

MYTH: Submitting your article everywhere creates duplicate content and the search engines will punish or discount those pages as a result.

FACT: If search engines punished duplicate content in the way that myth suggests then all rss feeds that cause a post in a blog to be reproduced to be discounted or published and they are not. The New York Times articles and CNN stuff is blasted all over the web and are not punished or discounted.

Duplicate content is two webpages that are around 70% similar, not two webpages that have similar text on them.

MYTH: The only way article marketing works is you write an article then submit it to thousands of article submission websites.

FACT: There is more than one way to make article marketing work for you. The way mentioned above works okay if you are looking to get a lot of links back to your website whether they are related or not and can be effective if you currently have very little or no link popularity at all.

Another way is to hand submit your article to article submission websites that only accept articles related to your topic. This is more difficult but the links help you more just through the submissions and it’s more likely that the websites that pick up and repost your article will be also related to your topic which can help you with better links and targeted traffic.

Yet another way is to write a very high quality article that you really take your time on and research. You then choose a very high traffic website related to your topic. One that has great PR and a lot of visitors.

Email them your article and offer them an exclusive if they will print your article with your links included in the bio. If your article is of good quality and they get an exclusive you have a good chance they will post your article there.

This one posting of your article can be more powerful than the mass submitted article method if you choose the website you submit it to carefully.

Last but not least, posting your article exclusively on your own website is a great way to add fresh content and if the article is good, people will link directly to the article increasing both traffic and PR for your webpage where you posted the article. But for this to work you need to already have some traffic to work with.

MYTH: You should always post your article in your website first, then wait to get crawled by the search engines before submitting the article elsewhere.

FACT: Adding articles to your own website is called adding content. Submitting those articles to other websites is called article marketing. With article marketing you don’t want the article indexed on your website first.

Yes you read that right. You do not want the article indexed on your website first. You are or should already be doing SEO on your website and adding fresh content to your website for the search engines to get traffic from them.

Submitting articles to other websites and having the search engines find it there first gives another gateway that people can find your website through.

If the websites that you submitted your articles to get crawled often, then having your article appear there with the links intact will get your website crawled as well.

If the websites you submitted your article to are getting indexed well by the search engines, then your article being found on their website first might get it in the top 10 results.

Placing it into your own website with no or low PR might not have gotten the article indexed at all.

I hope this article will clear up some of the myths about article marketing and that it has helped you understand how and why it works.