Recurrence relations are a powerful tool for mathematical modeling and numerically solving differential equations (no matter how complicated). And as luck would have it, they are relatively easy to understand and apply. So let’s dive right into it using a purely mathematical example (for clarity) before looking at a real-world application.

This equation is a typical example of a recurrence relation:

x(t+1) = 5 * x(t) + 2 * x(t-1)

At the heart of the equation is a certain quantity x. It appears three times: x(t+1) stands for the value of this quantity at a time t+1 (next month), x(t) for the value at time t (current month) and x(t-1) the value at time t-1 (previous month). So what the relation allows us to do is to determine the value of said quantity for the next month, given that we know it for the current and previous month. Of course the choice of time span here is just arbitrary, it might as well be a decade or nanosecond. What’s important is that we can use the last two values in the sequence to determine the next value.

Suppose we start with x(0) = 0 and x(1) = 1. With the recurrence relation we can continue the sequence step by step:

x(2) = 5 * x(1) + 2 * x(0) = 5 * 1 + 2 * 0 = 5

x(3) = 5 * x(2) + 2 * x(1) = 5 * 5 + 2 * 1 = 27

x(4) = 5 * x(3) + 2 * x(2) = 5 * 27 + 2 * 5 = 145

And so on. Once we’re given the “seed”, determining the sequence is not that hard. It’s just a matter of plugging in the last two data points and doing the calculation. The downside to defining a sequence recursively is that if you want to know x(500), you have to go through hundreds of steps to get there. Luckily, this is not a problem for computers.

In the most general terms, a recurrence relation relates the value of quantity x at a time t + 1 to the values of this quantity x at earlier times. The time itself could also appear as a factor. So this here would also be a legitimate recurrence relation:

x(t+1) = 5 * t * x(t) – 2 * x(t-10)

Here we calculate the value of x at time t+1 (next month) by its value at a time t (current month) and t – 10 (ten months ago). Note that in this case you need eleven seed values to be able to continue the sequence. If we are only given x(0) = 0 and x(10) = 50, we can do the next step:

x(11) = 5 * 10 * x(10) – 2 * x(0) = 5 * 10 * 50 – 2 * 0 = 2500

But we run into problems after that:

x(12) = 5 * 11 * x(11) – 2 * x(1) = 5 * 11 * 2500 – 2 * x(1) = ?

We already calculated x(11), but there’s nothing we can do to deduce x(1).

Now let’s look at one interesting application of such recurrence relations, modeling the growth of animal populations. We’ll start with a simple model that relates the number of animals x in the next month t+1 to the number of animals x in the current month t as such:

x(t+1) = x(t) + f * x(t)

The factor f is a constant that determines the rate of growth (to be more specific: its value is the decimal percentage change from one month to the next). So if our population grows with 25 % each month, we get:

x(t+1) = x(t) + 0.25 * x(t)

If we start with x(0) = 100 rabbits at month t = 0 we get:

x(1) = x(0) + 0.1 * x(0) = 100 + 0.25 * 100 = 125 rabbits

x(2) = x(1) + 0.1 * x(1) = 125 + 0.25 * 125 = 156 rabbits

x(3) = x(2) + 0.1 * x(2) = 156 + 0.25 * 156 = 195 rabbits

x(4) = x(3) + 0.1 * x(3) = 195 + 0.25 * 195 = 244 rabbits

x(5) = x(4) + 0.1 * x(4) = 244 + 0.25 * 244 = 305 rabbits

And so on. Maybe you already see the main problem with this exponential model: it just keeps on growing. This is fine as long as the population is small and the environment rich in ressources, but every environment has its limits. Let’s fix this problem by including an additional term in the recurrence relation that will lead to this behavior:

- Exponential growth as long as the population is small compared to the capacity

– Slowing growth near the capacity

– No growth at capacity

– Population decline when over the capacity

How can we translate this into mathematics? It takes a lot of practice to be able to tweak a recurrence relation to get the behavior you want. You just learned your first chord and I’m asking you to play Mozart, that’s not fair. But take a look at this bad boy:

x(t+1) = x(t) + a * x(t) * (1 – x(t) / C)

This is called the logistic model and the constant C represents said capacity. If x is much smaller than the capacity C, the ratio x / C will be close to zero and we are left with exponential growth:

x(t+1) ≈ x(t) + a * x(t) * (1 – 0)

x(t+1) ≈ x(t) + a * x(t)

So this admittedly complicated looking recurrence relation fullfils our first demand: exponential growth for small populations. What happens if the population x reaches the capacity C? Then all growth should stop. Let’s see if this is the case. With x = C, the ratio x / C is obviously equal to one, and in this case we get:

x(t+1) = x(t) + a * x(t) * (1 – 1)

x(t+1) = x(t)

The number of animals remains constant, just as we wanted. Last but not least, what happens if (for some reason) the population gets past the capacity, meaning that x is greater than C? In this case the ratio x / C is greater than one (let’s just say x / C = 1.2 for the sake of argument):

x(t+1) = x(t) + a * x(t) * (1 – 1.2)

x(t+1) = x(t) + a * x(t) * (- 0.2)

The second term is now negative and thus x(t+1) will be smaller than x(t) – a decline back to capacity. What an enormous amount of beautiful behavior in such a compact line of mathematics! This is where the power of recurrence relations comes to light. Anyways, let’s go back to our rabbit population. We’ll let them grow with 25 % (a = 0.25), but this time on an island that can only sustain 300 rabbits at most (C = 300). Thus the model looks like this:

x(t+1) = x(t) + 0.25 * x(t) * (1 – x(t) / 300)

If we start with x(0) = 100 rabbits at month t = 0 we get:

x(1) = 100 + 0.25 * 100 * (1 – 100 / 300) = 117 rabbits

x(2) = 117 + 0.25 * 117 * (1 – 117 / 300) = 135 rabbits

x(3) = 135 + 0.25 * 135 * (1 – 135 / 300) = 153 rabbits

x(4) = 153 + 0.25 * 153 * (1 – 153 / 300) = 172 rabbits

x(5) = 172 + 0.25 * 172 * (1 – 172 / 300) = 190 rabbits

Note that now the growth is almost linear rather than exponential and will slow down further the closer we get to the capacity (continue the sequence if you like, it will gently approach 300, but never go past it).

We can even go further and include random events in a recurrence relation. Let’s stick to the rabbits and their logistic growth and say that there’s a p = 5 % chance that in a certain month a flood occurs. If this happens, the population will halve. If no flood occurs, it will grow logistically as usual. This is what our new model looks like in mathematical terms:

x(t+1) = x(t) + 0.25 * x(t) * (1 – x(t) / 300) if no flood occurs

x(t+1) = 0.5 * x(t) if a flood occurs

To determine if there’s a flood, we let a random number generator spit out a number between 1 and 100 at each step. If it displays the number 5 or smaller, we use the “flood” equation (in accordance with the 5 % chance for a flood). Again we turn to our initial population of 100 rabbits with the growth rate and capacity unchanged:

x(1) = 100 + 0.25 * 100 * (1 – 100 / 300) = 117 rabbits

x(2) = 117 + 0.25 * 117 * (1 – 117 / 300) = 135 rabbits

x(3) = 135 + 0.25 * 135 * (1 – 135 / 300) = 153 rabbits

x(4) = 0.5 * 153 = 77 rabbits

x(5) = 77 + 0.25 * 77 * (1 – 77 / 300) = 91 rabbits

As you can see, in this run the random number generator gave a number 5 or smaller during the fourth step. Accordingly, the number of rabbits halved. You can do a lot of shenanigans (and some useful stuff as well) with recurrence relations and random numbers, the sky’s the limit. I hope this quick overview was helpful.

A note for the advanced: here’s how you turn a differential equation into a recurrence relation. Let’s take this differential equation:

dx/dt = a * x * exp(- b*x)

First multiply by dt:

dx = a * x * exp(- b * x) * dt

We set dx (the change in x) equal to x(t+h) – x(t) and dt (change in time) equal to a small constant h. Of course for x we now use x(t):

x(t+h) – x(t) = a * x(t) * exp(- b * x(t)) * h

Solve for x(t+h):

x(t+h) = x(t) + a * x(t) * exp(- b * x(t)) * h

And done! The smaller your h, the more accurate your numerical results. How low you can go depends on your computer’s computing power.